The BJP has already lost the battle in Karnataka: Veeraraghav TM

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Most pre-poll and post-poll surveys have predicted a comfortable victory for the Congress, while saying the BJP would lose much ground. CNN-IBN’s consulting editor TM Veeraraghav joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the possible tie-ups and if there are indications that the Congress can form the government single-handedly.

Q. In Karnataka democracy is being raped by these legislatures. Most of the contestants have done musical chairs by siting in the chairs of different political parties Viz they were earlier in congress, JDS, BJP and Now even in KJP.I used to feel why I should vote for these unscrupulous third rate persons with no ethics. Asked by: Prathap

A. That is so true. So many of them have shifted sides. But I still think the vote is important to mark a presence.

Q. Coalition or not corruption will go on. because most the crorepati candidates would have spent crores to win the election. if they get the power their foremost aim to recover the money spent with interest. Asked by: Prathap

A. Yes, more importantly it breeds black money. My driver told me that each party comes before voting day to their slum and the going rate is 1000 rupees a vote. as long as people take money and vote politicians won’t change.

Q. Was the huge corruption charges and the limping congress led UPA2’s image not at all a factor in Karnataka polls or Simply the people in Karnataka accepted the corrupt bound Congress. Asked by: Rengamani

A. It is a factor but in a state election people see what happened in their state and the BJP did worse than the Congress. But had the overall negative trend for the Congress not been there they would have swept majorly now they can scrape through to a win.

Q. How much 3 meetings by Modi have improved the BJP chances or seat tally? Asked by: rakeshh

A. Not much. I have written a whole piece on Modi in Karnataka on IBNLive.com.

Q. I believe the exit polls are not upto the mark regarding the Karnataka elections. I see JD(S) or KJP forming the government and a complete routing of BJP and Congress. Your comments please. Asked by: naveen

A. No. I think the JD(S) will do well and may come as a second party. But people are voting for stability this time and they will give a clear mandate.

Q. How much 3 meetings by Modi have improved the BJP chances or seat tally? Asked by: rakeshh

A. Have written a piece on IBNLive on it. I don’t think it will matter at all.

Q. It is a shame to know that the Poling officials did not know about the NOTA (None of the above) voting option. Can we call this a fair election? Asked by: Goel

A. The O vote is yet to make a presence. People should know that if the O vote wins then a re election must be ordered. Sad that poll officers didn’t know about it.

Q. Is it fair to compare Karnataka exit poll opinion to 2014 general election? Asked by: Hari

A. No comparisons or indications should be taken. this is a state election and cannot be an indicator forr a national election. I think after this polls BJP and Yeddyurappa will patch up and the party may do better in Karnataka in 2014.

Q. What is the prediction for coastal Karnataka? Has BJP managed to get it act together or has moral policing cost them in their strong hold? Asked by: Vinol

A. Congress will benefit because of the split in the BJP… Coastal and North Karnataka.

Q. Most post-poll surveys are showing Congress is closer to simple majority, inspite of selecting wrong candidates. do you think the anti incumbency mood has strongly consolidated in favour of Congress. Asked by: sathyaki

A. I think it’s the split in the BJP more than ant incumbency that’s favoured the Congress Yeddyurappa is not a seat winner but a spoiler for the BJP in many seats.

Q. 2008 CNN-IBN predicted Karnataka congress will get 114 seats full majority but all changed, what about this time? Asked by: Hari

A. Once bitten twice shy. We are predicting Congress crossing simple majority this time. let’s see. I personally don’t rely too much on pre-polls.

Q. What a farce – choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea. Will anything change for the Kannadigans post this election verdict? Asked by: c4conscience

A. Sad choice it is. But hopefully we’ll have a better administration.

Q. If Yeddyurappa with BJP, then they can able to take congress with same aggressive today? Asked by: Hari

A. Yes. I think if Yeddyurappa had been with the BJP things may have been better. but they do suffer from a huge loss of face

Q. As per Exit poll vote share this victory to Congress is due the KJP dividing BJP votes or still Congress have a clear vote share for victory? Asked by: Hari

A. Vote share in Karnataka becomes difficult to judge. the BJP had a lesser share last time but won more seats. That’s because of it’s concentrated presence, This time i think the split seems a bigger factor than ant incumbency.

Q. Hi Veera, With many TV channels predicting Congress emerging as the single largest party. Are there any chances of Congress getting simple majority? Asked by: Sudhakar

A. My personal gut feel is Congress will get simple majority or atleast close to simple majority. let’s see!!

Q. Hi Veera, If Congress doesn’t get simple majority, will they approach JDS for alliance? Asked by: Sudhakar

A. They may even approach KJP. but that would depend on how short they fall. I still feel they will get a simple majority.

Q. Hi Veera, What are the chances of BJP-JDS alliance? Asked by: Sudhakar

A. Phew … that may be a real twist in the story.

Q. So Congress is getting the mandate in Karnataka as exit polls suggest now..is there any chance of upset when counting begins.. Asked by: Rohit

A. There’s always a chance of predictions going wrong. But this time i feel that there may not be a sting in the tail.

Q. Is Congress going to get clear majority or will they have to take support of others… Asked by: Rakka

A. They seem to be headed for a getting very close or scraping past 112 mark. if they don’t then they may be in a bad state. I would suspect their first bet would be KJP.

Q. Is BSY going to play king maker role.. Asked by: Ramesh

A. I am not sure. but he’s definitely proved to the BJP that he can be a spoiler.

Q. Hi Veera, I believe JDS-KJP alliance will form government in karnataka. Your views on the same? Asked by: Ali

A. Hmmm. it’s a possible outcome. If Congress falls short of 105 then it becomes a real possibility. But i think people in KA are voting for stability this time and hence the Congress may get past 112.

Q. So the mood is clearly in favour of Congress..will this congress win also reflect in LS polls.. Asked by: Rajnish

A. Haha … I don’t think so but it’s a long prediction to make.

Q. So BJP is all set to loose its only south Indian state or will be there any miracle on the counting day.. Asked by: Raja

A. The BJP has already lost the battle. Their best hope is that the Congress doesn’t get a majority on it’s own.

Q. Is Congress going to win big in the state..will they get 2/3 majority.. Asked by: Rama

A. I don’t think so. I think they will scrape through.

Q. If BSY happens to be the king maker..what is the chance that he will ask for the CM post for himself considering how much power thirsty he is.. Asked by: Ranjuna

A. He’s an arrogant man. he can ask for anything but he may just give outside support and play his cards to get off the case. best bet for him is to get close to 10 to 15 seats. he can’t be king with that.

Q. Congress has not done much..and with their corruption at the center would have been the worst selection for the people..but then people were left with no better choice to chose best among the worst..congress win will be more of people not having better option in the state.. Asked by: Guru

A. True.

Q. Who are the candidates for CM post in the congress apart from siddaramaiah. Will there be in-fighting on this issue like the BJP has always? Asked by: Ali

A. In congress Siddaramiah, Kharge and Parameshwar are the names i have been hearing in that order. But lately I am hearing Moily’s name from people in Delhi. My bet is either Siddaramiah if not Parameshwar.

Q. Sir, I think BJP will fare very badly and this should be a lesson to all political parties not to take people for granted. who do you think would be better CM if congress comes to power. Sidaramaiah or parameshwar. Asked by: satish

A. I think Siddaramiah.

Q. Dear Mr TM, What are the chances.. that these exit surveys are even 50-60 percent authentic? Asked by: Rakesh

A. Hahah… trade secrets :-). But some surveys do make an honest effort.

Q. Sir, the media is saying Dr parameshwar will have a tuff fight in koratagere. I am from that place and when i went to vote and saw the feedback it seems he is going to win very easily. i want to know is media biased or they do without knowing the pulse of people Asked by: mahesh

A. Not all media can be trusted. unfounded stories do get planted often.

Q. If exit poll Opinion is correct then people voted for change not on the basis of corruption alone? Asked by: Hari

A. I think people voted this time for stability.

Q. Scam after scam at centre, don’t you think BJP will win atleast 80 seats? Asked by: kaushik

A. I don’t think so. Yeddyurappa is splitting votes.

Q. Will Yeddy rejoin BJP if he puts up a poor show in these elections? Asked by: Sanjeev

A. I believe Either ways Yeddy and BJP will patch up before 2014.

Q. The Congress seems to be the default benefactor of the corrupt BJP rule. But do you think there will be voters who would consider the national situation and UPA’s corruption rather than the state BJP rule? Asked by: SHANKAR S MENON

A. Yes surely there would be. If the centre was good the Congress would have had a landslide in Karnataka.

Q. Will this Karnataka election Result be a Curtain Raiser for 2014 Loksabha Elections? Asked by: javeedahmedm@in.com

A. Not the least. No state election can ever be an indicator of the trend for a national election. just like municipal elections are not an indicator of assembly elections.

Q. Will the mine barons play a role in govt formation Be any Alliance (Cong/BJP/JD/KJP)? Asked by: javeedahmedm@in.com

A. Not the Reddy brothers or Sriramulu. But I think after 2014 depending on Jagan reddy’s growth they may re emerge.

Q. Looks like the congress is coming back to power. Can the congress high command take Karnataka for granted for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections as well, given the fact that, barring Karnataka, its vote-bank in other south Indian states is not something to cheer about for the congressmen? Asked by: Ragu D

A. I don’t think even in Karnataka the Congress can take the assembly polls as an indication of the national poll results. If Yeddy and BJP go back together then I think the BJP can try and retain it’s hold.

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