India

For Congress, a reliable support base now sizes up Narendra Modi

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Alwar: Jitendra Saini stares at the gleaming solar panels on his farm in Rajasthan, paid in large part by the Congress-led government at the Centre, as he considers who will get his vote in India’s election.

“We will be voting for Modi… because Modi knows what real development is,” said Saini, 30, about Narendra Modi, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate.

Saini’s income has increased five-fold in the last three years thanks to the heavily subsidised panels which power a drip irrigation system that waters rows of lush vegetables in giant hothouses.

Extra income from the vegetables enabled Saini to build the house, send his children to good schools and buy new machinery for the farm that lies around 160 kilometres outside Delhi.

But with weeks to go before India chooses its next government, analysts say popularity for the Congress is ebbing in the rural heartland, despite its raft of pro-farmer policies during a decade in power. Rajasthan over-whelmingly chose the BJP over the Congress in the state election held in December.

“No rural programmes are actually going to help Congress remain popular in rural areas this time around,” Sanjay Kumar, director of Delhi-based think tank the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, told AFP. “This myth about the BJP not being popular in rural areas might be broken at this election.”

As he looks to the future, Saini said his family needs opportunities, not welfare programmes.

“I believe that if the entire country progresses, then my family will automatically benefit and will be happy. So the country should develop first,” he said of his reasons for supporting Modi who heads the Bharatiya Janata Party

On Wednesday, the Congress released its manifesto, pledging to pull millions more out of poverty, in a last-ditch bid to win over voters.

“The future of India is the poor people of India… they are sitting in the villages, they are sitting in the small towns and these are the people that the Congress party works for,” said Rahul Gandhi, who is leading the party campaign.

Since it was first elected in 2004, the Congress-led government has poured thousands of crores annually into guaranteed employment, cheap food, road-building and other schemes.

In 2010-2011, the government spent $18 billion or one lakh eight thousand crore alone on subsidies to help farmers produce their crops, mainly cheap fertiliser, economic research group McKinsey Global Institute said.

The schemes have helped boost incomes and consumer spending in India’s nearly 600,000 villages and on farms, where 47 percent of the 485 million-strong workforce toils.

But polls show the Congress, led by Rahul and his mother Sonia Gandhi, headed for a disastrous defeat at the elections. Mr Modi, chief minister of Gujarat, has devoted the bulk of his public appearances to promises of reviving India’s battered economy by attracting investment, accelerating development and creating jobs.

Economic growth in Gujarat averaged 10.13 percent between 2005 and 2012, official data shows.

But critics say the economic gains have been uneven and poverty still persists, particularly among minorities. Others criticise a lack of detail about how he plans to transform the ailing national economy running at 4.7 percent growth.

In the town of Alwar which has a population of 314,000, farmers offer differing opinions on Mr Modi.

“I’m worried that if they form a government, there will be a lot of communal tension and unrest,” said Moj Khan, referring to the Gujarat riots in 2002, in which more than 1,000 people were killed, most of them Muslims.

But Islam Khan, 48, said he will vote for Modi.

Khan pointed to poor power and water supplies and bad roads as reasons. Soaring food costs meant his three children sometimes went to bed hungry, he added softly, as farmers unloaded sacks of crops from tractors. “All I want for my family is to see them happy, to see them get food and get their medicines on time,” he said.

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