MUMBAI: With the end of campaigning on Monday, Maharashtra braces for an epic poll battle. With a riveting and unprecedented five-way contest, even Mumbai’s bookies are hedging their bets. The splintering of long-standing political alliances, just three weeks before the polls, set the stage for an election which could dramatically alter the State’s political map.
The big question is whether there will be a clear verdict. Much depends on who will benefit from the anti-incumbency factor against the 15-year rule of the Congress-NCP government, and to what extent.
BJP has the edge
Pollsters see a clear edge for the BJP that could emerge as the single-largest party. The BJP has banked heavily on the Narendra Modi juggernaut, with the Prime Minister’s blitzkrieg of 25 rallies in 10 days. By contrast the Congress chief Sonia Gandhi addressed four rallies and vice-president Rahul Gandhi six.
“There is a definite edge for the BJP because Mr. Modi’s honeymoon period has not yet ended. But whether it will get a clear mandate is not clear. Much depends on whether it has a pan-Maharashtra impact and whether the splitting of both alliances will swing votes towards the BJP,” says B. Venkatesh Kumar, political science professor at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences.
In the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 23 of the 24 seats it contested from Maharashtra. With the Prime Minister’s larger than life presence, the campaign became Modi versus the rest. The BJP had to fight off the sentiment of wounded Marathi pride fanned by its former ally the Shiv Sena.
Win will strengthen Modi-Shah as poll mascots
With the Prime Minister’s larger than life presence, the campaign for the Maharashtra Assembly polls became Modi versus the rest. The BJP had to fight off the sentiment of wounded Marathi pride fanned by its former ally the Shiv Sena.
Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), the NCP and the Congress accused him of trying to divide Maharashtra, forcing the Prime Minister to issue an uncharacteristic denial.
The BJP is hoping for a repeat of its Lok Sabha success, an antidote to its recent by-election reverses. In the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 23 of the 24 seats it contested from Maharashtra.
“There is a definite edge for the BJP because Mr. Modi’s honeymoon period has not yet ended. But whether it will get a clear mandate is not clear. Much depends on whether it has a pan-Maharashtra impact and whether the splitting of both alliances will swing votes towards the BJP,” says B. Venkatesh Kumar, political science professor at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences.
A win in this key State will cement the position of both Mr. Modi and party president Amit Shah as election mascots within the BJP.
However, the lack of strong leadership within the State after the death of Gopinath Munde and the party’s going back and forth on the issue of Vidarbha’s statehood could upset the party’s calculations.
If no clear mandate emerges, the post-poll picture will depend entirely on the numbers with each party. The party with the largest number of seats could form the government with the help of Independents and smaller parties. The BJP and the Shiv Sena could patch up, setting aside the bitterness during the campaign. Or non-BJP parties could try and form an alliance, with signs of a rapprochement between the Shiv Sena and the MNS. Many feel the NCP could join this camp though the party has strongly denied this. If all else fails, the State could well be in for another spell of President’s Rule.
