The Congress would be in a position to form a government in Karnataka, getting past the half way mark of 113 seats in the 225-member house while the ruling BJP’s tally would go down significantly, a survey said Thursday.
According to a pre-poll survey conducted by CSDS for CNN-IBN channel and the Week magazine, the Congress is estimated to get between 117-129 seats against just 39-49 for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) is likely to get 34-44 seats and the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) and the Independents together may end up with 14-22 seats, it said.
Karnataka would vote on May 5. The results would be out May 8.
According to the survey, the Congress is likely to secure highest votes with a 37 percent vote share indicating a gain of 2 percent over 2008 poll.
The BJP is likely to get only 23 percent of votes – a significant fall of 11 percent compared to its performance in last assembly election.
According to the survey, the BJP’s loss is the gain for new entrant and former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa’s KJP, which is likely to get an estimated 7 percent votes.
The JD-S may finish third but with a marginal gain in its vote share, it said.
In a region-wise analysis, the pre-poll survey suggests the Congress is likely to consolidate and lead over BJP in four regions of Hyderabad Karnataka, Mumbai Karnataka, central Karnataka and Bangalore.
In coastal Karnataka it is likely to be a close race between the BJP and the Congress and a close contest between the JD-S and the Congress in southern Karnataka.
In central Karnataka, the KJP is likely to dent the BJP’s base.
The survey shows JD-S leader and former chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy as the most preferred chief minister with 18 percent of respondents plumping for him and then Yeddyurappa with 10 percent.
Congress leader Siddaramaiah is in a close race with Yeddyurappa as 9 percent respondents prefer him as the next chief minister.