New Delhi: Pakistan clinched a thrilling 29-run win over South Africa to stay on course for the World Cup quarter-finals, while Ireland also eyed the last-eight with a nail-biting five-run victory over Zimbabwe.
The result left South Africa and Pakistan both on six points and well-placed for the quarter-finals.
Ireland are in fourth but also have six points and a game in hand.They are also two points ahead of the West Indies, leaving the four sides to fight over the three remaining spots in the last eight in a Pool B from which defending champions India have already qualified.
Meanwhile, Sri Lanka goes into its match against Australia at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Saturday with three straight wins since losing to New Zealand in the tournament opener.
In this juncture, it becomes vital to analyse the standings in both the pools to assess which of these teams have a higher probability of making it to the quarter-finals.
New Zealand
Already qualified.
Sri Lanka
On the verge of qualification.
If they beat Australia in the Sydney encounter on Sunday, then they are through to quarters.
If they fail to do so then they have another chance against minnows Scotland on March 11.
If they lose against Scotland too, they are in a bit of a trouble because Sri Lanka’s Net Run Rate (NRR) is + 0.128(least among the top four in pool A) is not favourable for them. England and Bangladesh become major threats if they lose both the matches. If England win both their remaining encounters (Bangladesh and Afghanistan) comfortably and if Bangladesh win against New Zealand and lose against England, then Sri Lanka have to book their return flights.
Australia
They have a crucial match against Sri Lanka on Sunday. Their place in the quarters is assured if they win the match. In case of a defeat, they have an easy encounter agasint Scotland on March 14.
Two things that Australia have on their side are NRR and a point from the tied match against Bangladesh. A win against Scotland or Sri Lanka will place them at 7 points with a pretty good NRR. Even if England manage to win both the matches (Bangladesh and Afghanistan) they will get only to 6 points. Hence they can’t disturb Australia.
In case they manage to lose both their matches, they are in a huge trouble. If England win both matches then they will surpass Australia in points and if Bangladesh manage a close loss against England followed by a win against New Zealand then the Australians can take buses to their respective towns.
Bangladesh
The rules for Bangladesh are same as that of Australia except that they don’t have an easy match remaining. They have two high-profile encounters. One against hungry-for-win England and another against a relaxed New Zealand.
If they win both of them then they are qualified.
If they manage to win even one of them, they will go to 7 points which England can’t achieve even if they win both their remaining matches.
But if they manage to lose both and if England win both the remaining matches then it’s doom for Bangladesh. Because if they lose both then they are in contention only if England lose against Afghanistan.
So Bangladesh have to win one or else pray Afghanistan pull off a miracle win againt the English.
England
This World Cup’s huge disasspointment was the performance of English cricketers. But still there is a small leeway for them. The task is cut out — win both the remaining games against Bangladesh and Afghanistan. If they manage to lose even one then statistics don’t matter.
In case they manage to win both then a lot of options open up. First, if Bangladesh lose against Australia too then they are through. Second, if Australia manages to lose both their matches then they are through. Third, if Sri Lanka manages to lose both their matches and has a NRR less than England then they are through.
In all these three options only the first one seems possible. They have to win both the matches and then start praying for an Australian win against Bangladesh. What an extra-ordinary fate! Ashes? Rivalry? What’s that?!
Afghanistan
They may have registered a historic win in the World Cup against Scotland and they may be level with England in the pool but the nation’s quarter-final chances are near zero.
If they win against New Zealand, if they win agaisnt England, if their NRR is through the roof, if they manage to score 800 runs, if they manage to take ten wickets in first ten balls of the match, there are a lot of dreamy ‘ifs’ in them making the quarters.
Scotland
They are yet to register a win. With the remaining matches agaisnt Sri Lanka and Australia, most probably they will return home with a participation certificate at the best.
Pool B
India
Already qualified.
South Africa
They crossed the 400+ run mark twice in this this World Cup, still the ‘chockers’ tag is not wearing off. But they have a good chance of making it to the quarter-finals. The only remaining match they have is agasint UAE. Expecting another 400+ in that.
With +1.462 NRR ( except India and SA all others in pool B have negative NRR) and a win against UAE they are safe.
But considering cricket is a glorious game of uncertainity, assuming that they lose against UAE and if West Indies manage a huge( add many ‘e’s to that huge) win against UAE then in NRR WI would get qualified.
Pakistan
Remember 1992 WC? The World Cup in which Imran Khan’s side rose literally from the ashes like a phoenix and won the tournament after a disastrous start. The current Pakistan team have started emulating them and already people are drawing out the similarities and expecting them to lift the World Cup.
However all of that will crash if they manage to lose against Ireland on March 15 and West Indies manage a big win agasint UAE.
Interestingly the Pakistan vs Ireland is the last match of the league phase. Expecting a thriller before the tournament enters the quarter-final phase.
Ireland
Ireland, the dark horse of this World Cup, have two matches remaining. One against India and another against Pakistan.
If they manage to win both, they would qualify for the quarters.
Even if they manage to win one of them they would qualify.
But if they lose both and if West Indies win against UAE (no huge win needed this time) then it would result in a huge disappointment for the minnows. While South Africa losing to UAE is nearly impossible, the Irish have to win atleast one of the remaining two encounters.
Whatever happens, Ireland have showed why associate nations should not be deprived of a chance in the next World Cup.
West Indies
Like England in pool A, WI are a huge disappointment in this World Cup. From the start, due to problems with the management, the once-upon-a-time stars have had many concerns coming into this World Cup.
However, their sole remaining game is against UAE. If they manage to get a huge win against the minnows and if Ireland manage to lose both the games they have can go through as their NRR is better than Ireland. Also, if Pakistan lose against Ireland there is a minute chance in terms of NRR. All depends on a huge win against UAE.
Zimbabwe
They should have won against Ireland. Jhon Mooney’s controversial catch stopped them from doing so and that cost Zimbabwe their quarter-final chances. They have a match left against the pool toppers India. If India try out their ‘B’ team and if Zimbabwe exceed expectations they can go back salvaging some pride.
UAE
NIL. Like Scotland they are yet to register a win in this World Cup. The next two games are against South Africa and West Indies, thus they most probably will return empty-handed. However, if they manage a win against a ‘weak’ West Indies or pull-off a huge upset against South Africa, they can play ‘spoilers’.
Still to play:
Mar 08 New Zealand v Afghanistan, Napier (11:00 local/22:00 GMT, March 07)
Mar 08 Australia v Sri Lanka, Sydney (14:30 local/03:30 GMT)
Mar 09 England v Bangladesh, Adelaide (14:00 local/03:30 GMT)
Mar 10 India v Ireland, Hamilton (14:00 local/01:00 GMT)
Mar 11 Sri Lanka v Scotland, Hobart (14:30 local/03:30 GMT)
Mar 12 South Africa v UAE, Wellington (14:00 local/01:00 GMT)
Mar 13 Bangladesh v New Zealand, Hamilton (14:00 local/01:00 GMT)
Mar 13 England v Afghanistan, Sydney (14:30 local/03:30 GMT)
Mar 14 India v Zimbabwe, Auckland (14:00 local/01:00 GMT)
Mar 14 Australia v Scotland, Hobart (14:30 local/03:30 GMT)
Mar 15 West Indies v UAE, Napier (11:00 local/22:00 GMT, March 14)
Mar 15 Pakistan v Ireland, Adelaide (14:00 local/03:30 GMT)
